By Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing

Don’t believe the $1 trillion hype. Healthcare reform, in its current form, is going to cost far more than the independent reports let on.

As investors looking for investment ideas for how to personally profit from it, there should be one easy way to stay protected without buying a single healthcare stock. Let me explain.

Healthcare reform has moved front and center. There are now four different bills in draft form being floated around Washington.

Many questions remain. Will there be a “public option?” Will Obamacare go the way of Hillarycare? Most importantly (and what we’re concerned with most) is the cost?

Initial estimates put the cost of healthcare reform at $1 trillion:

The CBO says a government-run health care system would cause 23 million Americans to lose private coverage, cost $1 trillion dollars and still leave 30 million uninsured.

The Congressional Budget Office, not your typical right-wing think tank, has looked at the Affordable Health Choices Act, as unveiled by Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Edward Kennedy, and found the word "affordable" to be false advertising.

We have looked at it and found the word "choices" to be as meaningless as being told you can buy any car you want — as long as it's a Ford.

The CBO director says on his official blog, "According to our preliminary assessment, enacting the proposal would result in a net increase in federal budget deficits of about $1.0 trillion over the 2010-2019 period."

This figure doesn't even include the cost of a proposed "public plan" option.

$1 trillion is a lot. It sounds like even more when we see there are no reasonable ways to pay for it.  Frankly, the three cent tax on soda isn’t going to amount to much.

But that’s actually now looking like a conservative estimate. Other estimates, including this one from the HIS Network put the expected costs of healthcare reform at much higher levels:

Health Systems Innovations Network, a consulting group, went ahead and estimated the full cost of a bill that included the subsidies and Medicaid expansion, and reduced the number of uninsured by 99 percent.

With these assumptions, they estimated the cost at a staggering $4 trillion over 10 years, resulting in the shift of 79 million Americans to government-run health care. The report does not include possible tax increases or spending offsets, but notes that, "this would be a challenging proposal to finance with budget neutrality."

Bottom line: $4 trillion

That’s the total with the “public option” for a government funded insurance scheme. Worst of all, there will still be 20 million to 30 million uninsured folks.

If this bill, in virtually any shape, will have a minimum $1 trillion tab and then grow from there. Worst of all, like all new government programs, there are only three ways to pay for it:

1. Higher taxes
2. Spending cuts elsewhere
3. Printing more new dollars

The first two are politically unfeasible (even more so given the state of the economy). The third, is hidden from the public, doesn’t require any majority approval, and has been used time and time again.

L-shaped recession and stagflationary economy here we come. Take action now. The window to buy gold and undervalued gold stocks is open and part of your portfolio should be devoted to it.

By Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing

Two weeks ago precious metals were as hot as ever. Gold prices were climbing. Gold stocks were doing even better. And silver prices were leading the way.

The old adage, “when gold climbs, silver soars” was playing out perfectly. Gold booked its biggest monthly gain since November. Silver, however, climbed past $15 per ounce and had its biggest monthly climb in 22 years according to MarketWatch.

Silver was showing its value as a dual-purpose commodity.

As an industrial metal, silver’s uses in healthcare, photography, and as a chemical catalyst (just to name a few) has made it more attractive as the economy shows signs of recovery.

As a precious metal, silver has been getting a lot of attention as the U.S. dollar shows continued weakness. Also, when the big money rotated around into gold and John Paulson’s big bet on gold were making headlines, gold was the hot sector. Silver was getting a lot more attention as an undervalued corollary.

Of course, sectors fall in and out of favor. Momentum traders have proven their willingness to quickly move onto something new. But if you’re looking for a long-term investment in silver, aside from silver ETF’s like the iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV), silver mining stocks are the way to go.

The Cheaper the Better

As with all mining stocks, each of the major silver mining stocks offer many different qualities. Some of the higher cost producers offer greater leverage. Others offer greater value and a bit more downside protection. Still others offer very large silver reserves compared to the others.

The key factor we look at first at the Prosperity Dispatch though when comparing sector specific mining stocks is costs. With my investment research I’m looking for value and limited downside risk. In mining stocks that means low costs. Low cost operators provide downside protection because if commodity prices fall, they’re the last ones to close down. Depending on their costs, the other mix of metals produced, the low-cost producers can usually survive extended downturns.

Below is a chart of the cash costs of silver produced. The cash costs are calculated by subtracting the revenues generated from the sale of byproducts like copper, zinc, and other base metals. In one case, after the base metal revenues are added into the mix, the costs are actually negative. (note: Silver Standard – SSRI – is not shown because not enough data exists because its production is much more recent)

As you can see, the cash costs for all the most actively traded silver miners vary widely. This is a result of different types of deposits and mixes of byproduct metal production. In this case, Silvercorp (NYSE:SVM) is the only one with a negative cash cost. In a way it gets paid to mine silver.

The costs will contribute directly to earnings, margins, and impact of any increases in production. So when it comes to valuation time, the costs will go a long way to determining premium valuations.

Lower isn’t necessarily better though. When it comes to safety, the lower the cost the better. When it comes to leverage, the higher costs the better. The basic rationale goes if something is barely or not profitable, it is worthless now. But if silver prices rise, it will be valuable. So it might not be as valuable, the jump from next to nothing to something is very big.

It’s not just costs though, we also have to look at relative performance to see how well these stocks have done during the last time silver prices went on a decent run.

Good Things Come to Those Who Wait

That’s why I’ve broken down where these silver mining stocks were trading when silver started to make its first big run past $15 per ounce back in late 2007.

The date I took for comparison purposes was November 7, 2007. This is the first real breakout above $15 for silver and eventually led to a relatively long and stable period when silver was trading for more than $15 an ounce. The chart below shows what the major silver companies were trading for then, now, and the decline they’ve all experienced.

As you can see, silver stocks have been hit pretty hard over the past year and a half. There are plenty of explanations for the decline.

First, very few sectors have defied the overall market decline. As leading investment manager David Burrows pointed out a few months ago when we sat down with him:

Burrows’ research concludes which stocks you invest in only account for 20% of the total return earned. Meanwhile, the overall market accounts for 50% and which sector you invest in accounts for 30% of returns.

Also, market volatility has been heavily impacted by sector rotations. Over the last year or so, the impact on individual sectors has been extreme. You have a sector go for a good run for a few months, watch a lot of new money bidding up the stocks in the entire sector, and a few months later the entire sector falls right back to where it was. A few recent examples we’ve covered have been shares of education, auto parts suppliers, and stem cell firms.

Finally, there is a general sense that this time around isn’t “the big one” for precious metals. Although there are plenty of reasons to be buying precious metals stocks now and holding for the long-term, it’s not likely the last buying opportunity in precious metals stocks.

Silver Set to Soar

Despite it all, everything is still in place for silver and silver stocks to do exceptionally well in the months and years ahead.

Whether the economy recovers and pushes precious metal safe havens down even lower in price or this is the time precious metals run much higher. History provides all the evidence.

The most important historical silver investment valuation method is the gold/silver ratio. The gold/silver ratio is the measure of how many ounces of silver can be bought for an ounce of gold. For instance, today gold/silver ratio sits at a relatively high at just over 63 (Gold -$939.4/Silver - $14.86).

When we look at how silver prices “slingshot” past gold prices, we identified how far away from normal the gold/silver ratio has gotten:

Right now, the gold/silver ratio is at an extreme. It’s slowly working its way back to historical norms which are much lower.

Over the long term, the gold/silver ratio has averaged about 30. That means one ounce of gold would buy about 30 ounces of silver. The gold/silver ratio hung around 50 for most of 2008.

Today, with silver at $14.60 an ounce and gold at $953, the gold/silver ratio is 65. In other words, an ounce of gold would buy 65 ounces of silver. That’s more than twice the long-run average.

Right now, silver is in great position to do well over the short-term and long-term. It has all the attributes to perform in any type of economic environment. Whether we face deflation (and the inflationary money printing to offset it), inflation, or hyperinflation, silver (and therefore silver stocks) is set to go much higher.

Good investing,

Andrew Mickey
Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing

Disclosure: Author currently holds a long position in Silvercorp Metals (SVM), physical silver, and no position in any of the other companies mentioned.

By Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing


From the AP: Money too funny: Argentine court forgives forgery:

An Argentine man who tried to use two counterfeit bills has been found innocent, by reason of incompetence.

A federal court in Buenos Aires says the forged bills presented by Marcos Ribles were "so clumsy and crude" that "they could not be accepted by most people."

The court says the 65-year-old man tried to pass a false 100-peso Argentine note, nominally worth about $26, as well as a false U.S. $50 bill.

Judges say the counterfeit bills had such shoddy printing and poor-quality paper that nobody could be fooled.

The court announced its ruling dismissing the charges on Wednesday.

Lessons learned: If you’re going to screw up, you better do it in a big way.

Here is a counterfeiter who would have gone to prison for a long time if he would have done a half decent job. Since he did an amazingly terrible job, he gets off completely.

Does this make you think of the bailouts of GM, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, AIG, Citigroup, etc.

By Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing

In the Prosperity Dispatch we’re always looking for investment opportunities which offer better returns with low risk.

Normally that means scouring the stock market, but not always.

That’s because every once in a while the government practically hands you free money. Right now, they’re about to do exactly that.

As I write, there is a bill on its way to the U.S. Senate popularly referred to as the “Cash for Clunkers” bill. The popular bill (it passed the House by 298-119 margin) is on its way to the Senate. But with such strong approval in the House, it surely won’t be held up for long or get modified too heavily before sending it over to the White House to be signed into law.

The details are pretty simple (well, as simple as you can get for any government regulation). If you are willing to scrap an old car which gets less than 18 miles per gallon and buy a new one, you get between $3,500 and $4,500.

The goal of the $4 billion program is to jump start new car sales and get old less efficient cars off the road. The CBO expects the program to help sell an additional 625,000 cars.

Overall, it sounds like a pretty good deal – especially if you’re in the market for a new car. And it may be. More importantly, there’s actually a way you can make money off of it too regardless of what you’re currently driving.

For instance, if you are able to find an old clunker of a car – a genuine clunker, like the first car – and buy it for less than the $3,500 or $4,500 rebate, it’s well worth it. Basically, if you spend $1,000 to save $4,500, it’s an instant 350% return on your money.

From an investment perspective, it’s like buying 100 shares of a $10 stock and selling those 100 shares for $45 a piece. I don’t know too many investors who would be willing to pass up a low risk, $3,500 gain overnight.

It might be gaming the system a bit, but it’s helping achieve what the lawmakers intended to achieve.

Now, we can move onto the less obvious problems here. First, it won’t help solve the oversupply problems. As it stands, there is more than one car for every licensed driver in the U.S. And then there’s trying to figure out how a $4 billion program is used to help rebate $4,500 each for 625,000 cars. That’s only a total of $2.81 billion in subsidies.

Figuring out how to make money from sound investment opportunities created by the U.S. government policies is something we do in Q1 Publishing’s Premium Services: Andrew Mickey’s Prudent Investing and our 100% free e-letter the Prosperity Dispatch.

 

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