Andrew Mickey

It’s set to happen all over again and this time it could be even bigger.

Commodities have had a nice run over the past few years. But after 50% or greater corrections in oil, copper, platinum, and other commodities, the stage is being set for another huge run in commodities.

The last couple of months have been pretty hectic. We’re in a recession. Unemployment is still on the uptrend. Deflation has set in. And no one knows when we’re going to get out of this downward spiral.

It’s been a shock to the financial system. Everything practically shut down. The problems at the banks are dominating the headlines, but the trickledown effect on the mining industry has and will be significant. And if the world economy recovers in the next two years (which given the stimulus packages and free money headed to the U.S. consumer, it will eventually) watch out. The commodity boom will return. And will probably be even stronger.

The commodity industry is cyclical. It has been for a long time. Right now, we’re in a temporary down part of the cycle. Commodity prices are falling from their lofty highs and everyone is running for cover. No one knows how bad this recession is going to be and investors are fleeing once-hot commodity markets. And this is the time investors should start to get interested in sectors, like mining, which have all the long-term fundamentals in their favor despite the big sell-off.

The financial community is not just selling off mining stocks though. It is also putting the stops on many new mining projects. After all, an economic downturn will slash major mining companies’ profits but it would also destroy the economic viability of any new projects.

Here’s the problem though. If the economy can recover fast enough, we’ll be right back where we were two or three years ago when supply couldn’t keep up with demand. Its commodity boom 2.0.

The cycle has already started and zinc is the first victim. The Financial Post, in Supply Issues for Zinc, Lead, and Copper explains:

With zinc prices falling to US$0.504 per pound on the London Metals Exchange Friday, current prices suggest at least 1.3 million tonnes of production will shut down by 2009, according to Octagon Capital. If that happens, the lead market will also see a huge deficit, analyst Hendrik Visagie said in a research note...

As for copper, its depressed price is expected to keep new mines from being financed, so look for long-term shortages there.

“As a result, we are confident the current price of lead is overdone, and metal prices in any future scenario would be significantly higher than they are today,” the analyst said.

The perfect example of all this is in the zinc market. Zinc is used primarily for steel production. And zinc prices have been absolutely crushed.

As you can see in the chart above, zinc prices have returned to their average price before the commodity run even started a few years ago. Many zinc mines have scaled back production or shutdown altogether as a result of the price decline.

Strategic Resources Corp (TSX:SRZ) announced last week it would shut down one of its mines and cancelled two other zinc mines scheduled to go into production.

In an interview with AP, Strategic Resources VP of IR said, “It's a difficult time. We did everything in our power to avoid the scenario of care and maintenance, but when the credit markets dried up we couldn't get the funding."

The expected announcement put the cap on Strategic Resources’ fall from more than $5 per share to less than two cents per share today.

Lundin Mining’s (NYSE:LMC) announced its zinc mine in Ireland will enter a three-year phased shutdown. Hudbay Minerals (TSX:HBM) announced it will be shutting one of its zinc mines in upstate New York down in August. Mining giant Teck Cominco (NYSE:TCK) said it will be closing down one its zinc mines in Australia.

That’s just a few of the bigger ones. Five more mining companies have either shut down their zinc mines, scaled back production, or canceled plans to go into production. It’s getting ugly out there and the commodity contraction has had a significant impact on the zinc industry.

The problems which have hit the zinc mining sector have come from a 75% decrease in prices. If copper and other base metals prices continue to falter, major diversified mining companies like Rio Tinto (NYSE:RTP) and Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX) will be forced to do the same thing.

They will be able to fight through a soft recession, but they can’t and won’t keep their mines open if they’re not profitable.

Already, mining deals for new mines are getting shelved. Not too many investors and financiers are willing to get behind a new project if current producers are getting shut down.

It’s history all over again. If commodity prices continue to fall, we’ll be right back in the same position we were five years ago. The mining industry will be underfunded and underdeveloped and the supply side of the equation will be in catch-up mode once again.

Right now, it’s still too early to tell. The economy is on the ropes and there’s just too much uncertainty out there. That uncertainty will help keep any rally in the mining sector tame.

For now, I’d recommend being as safe as possible when buying mining stocks. A better time to buy is probably on the way. And if you wait patiently, you’ll probably be able to pick up mining stocks at even better prices. After all, if you miss the first 15% to 20% of the re-boom, you’ll still have gotten in on what should be a huge run without taking on too much risk.

There’s still a lot of uncertainty out there and any further declines in unemployment, consumer spending, will drag commodity prices even lower. Once more mines start getting shut down; it’ll be time to start moving into the mining sector in a big way. The long-term fundamentals are strong and with each mine that gets shut down, they get even stronger.

Good investing,

 

Andrew Mickey
Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing

 

Andrew Mickey

“Google Defies Economy to Beat Forecasts” - Reuters

Google…defying the economy? Impossible, even mighty search giant won’t be immune to this recession. They’ve just been able to avoid the fate of competitors so far. The real problems will get to them. I expect the economic downturn that is just starting to show up in advertising budgets to make its way across all businesses that live off advertisers, including Google.

For the moment, Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) isn’t defying anything. The company’s recent earnings release was a strong one, but the growth and improved performance isn’t coming as a result of the economy. It’s more of a result of a structural change in the advertising industry and a little belt-tightening by Google.

The last year has been a fairly strong one for Google. The Internet search giant saw its total revenue climb 31% which led to a 25% increase in net income compared to the same period last year. The headline numbers look good.

If we delve under the headline numbers, a bit of a different story appears. Take a look at the operating margins. Operating margins provide one of the best pictures of how healthy a company is. A business that can generate more dollars in profit while growing top line revenue is in very good shape. You can see that in the operating margin.

Google’s operating margin was in a steady decline since Q3 2007. As you can see in the chart below, the decline may have been relatively slow, but any decline should start to raise some concern.

Google Operating Margin
Q3 2008	Q2 2008	Q1 2008	Q4 2007	Q3 2007
31.4%	29.4%	29.8%	29.8%	31.2%

 

In this case Google appears to be getting healthier. The Internet search giant’s operating margin increased despite expected cuts in corporate advertising budgets. The increase appears that Google is as healthy as it was a year ago, but the increase actually came from Google significantly cutting costs.

Google sees what is going to happen to advertising revenue during the recession and is finally reigning in its costs. Google’s selling, general, and administrative (SGA) costs declined for the first time in over a year last quarter.

The company known for providing free coffee, meals, and snacks to its employees is starting to cut back on a few of the perks. Last quarter, Google slashed SGA costs. SGA costs rose from $702 million in Q3 2007 to $959 million in Q2 2008. That’s a 36% increase in SGA costs in 12 months time.

It was too much too fast. Granted Google, was growing fast, but SGA costs were growing even faster.

In the chart below, you can see Google SGA costs as a percent of total revenues. Some cost increases should be expected, but on a comparative basis, they were getting a bit too high. In Q3 2008 the uptrend was reversed and Google made some necessary adjustments to prepare for the recession.

Selling, General, & Administrative Costs (% of revenues)
Q3 2008	Q2 2008	Q1 2008	Q4 2007	Q3 2007
16.58%	17.86%	16.51%	16.55%	16.59%

 

And it’s paying off in more profits and improved operating efficiency. The biggest rewards of these cutbacks will be reaped over the long-term.

Google’s cutbacks are a very, very good move right now. A company that generates so much free cash flow, $8.3 billion cash ($17.9 billion in total current assets), and practically no debt will be in perfect position to capitalize on the upcoming recession.

Google has made significant inroads into the Internet search engine market. Its market share sits at 63% of all web searches. Now, with a pending partnership with its formerly formidable competitor Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), its market share of Internet advertising revenue is going to continue to grow.

For the time being, that market is starting to slow a bit. Bloomberg reports, “The credit crisis may cost the online-advertising industry $6.7 billion in lost sales through 2010. The reductions (in online advertising) will drive growth in U.S. Internet ad outlays to less than 20 percent next year for the first time since 2002.” Total Internet advertising is expected to increase to $43.6 billion. That’s well short of the previously expected $44.4 billion.

As we can see Internet advertising isn’t going away, but it will not grow nearly as fast as it did. This is a recession and every company will be impacted in some way. Leading advertisers like General Motors (NYSE:GM) and financial services companies like T. Rowe Price (NASDAQ:TROW) and Wachovia (NYSE:WB) have either disappeared or will have to trim their advertising budgets.

When all is said is done, Google will not be able to defy the recession. It will be impacted. There will be a great time to load up on shares of Google. The company will survive the recession and will be one of few companies that come out stronger on the other side, but after a solid earnings and news report is probably not one of the best times to buy.

If this will truly be a “long and deep” recession as predicted by Prem Watsa, the excitement around Google will fade and there will be a time to buy shares of Google even cheaper.

Good investing,

 

Andrew Mickey
Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing

 

Andrew Mickey

The markets are collapsing. The country of Iceland is on the verge of Chapter 11. Detroit is about to close down completely. Credit markets have seized and investors are rightly running away from companies that rely on credit to sustain their businesses. 

Most people probably missed them, but there are a few bright spots. After a huge fall in commodities that was similar to the dot-com bubble condensed into a three-month period, there are now some real values.

One of those sectors is in agriculture. We watched the entire sector climb to frothy highs, watched its seemingly unstoppable fall, and now it’s anyone’s guess what ag stocks are going to do over the next day, week, and month.

Although, once a short-term rally begins, fertilizer stocks will likely be there in a big, big way. The sell-off has been unwarranted as hedge fund redemptions have gone through the roof. But the long-term outlook for agriculture has remained strong despite the recent downturn in agriculture stocks.

With everything going on, the agriculture industry is starting to show how strong it has remained. Yes, the bubble in fertilizer prices has popped. Agriculture commodity prices have come back to reality. But they’re still higher than the long-run average and, when the markets return to normalcy, agriculture will be one of the leaders once again.

After all, oil demand will likely cool off until the global economy gets turned around. Demand for copper, zinc, silver, and other base and industrial metals will likely continue to stagnate as well. But the argument that people have to eat still holds true.

One of the leading benefactors of it all has been Monsanto (NYSE:MON). As a maker of seeds that grow into plants that grow bigger, are customizable to different qualities and types of soil, and are more resistant to pests, Monsanto has gone along for the ride in agriculture stocks.

And while the markets plummeted and speculation over the government’s next move, Monsanto showed the agriculture markets are as strong as ever. Monsanto released its latest earnings report last week. Despite the lack of positive reaction from the market, the company proved the fundamental agriculture market is as healthy as ever.

Monsanto reported some pretty good top and bottom line numbers. The company reported a loss of 3 cents per share compared to consensus estimates of a loss of 4 cents per share. Revenues for seeds and traits increased 27%. Revenue for herbicides and crop protection products increased 43%.

Also on the positive side, the company added that it expects gross profit to rise to $9.5 billion by 2012. That’s 53% higher than its gross profit in 2008 and marks an annualized growth rate of 11.3%. Granted, not much to get excited about, but with recession looming, dependable and achievable growth should be welcomed.

But to find out how truly healthy a business is, we’ve got to look at the operating margins. Expanding operating margins show a company is basically squeezing more profits from every dollar in revenue. Shrinking operating margins show a company is not able to earn as much per sale even though revenues may be expanding.

 In this case, Monsanto’s operating business is as healthy as ever and getting healthier.

 

Over the past four years, Monsanto has been able to expand its operating margin from 11.8% to 17.6%.

Of course, we have to worry now about the impact of a recession and continued tight credit markets. After all, most farms operate almost entirely on credit. Farms borrow big to start the year for seeds, fertilizer, and everything else. Then pay it all off at harvest time.

That’s what could create an additional opportunity for a cash flow machine like Monsanto. Even though credit for farmers hasn’t yet and probably won’t, Monsanto could easily fill in the gap. It has current assets of $7.6 billion and current liabilities of $4.4 billion. It already extends a good amount of credit to its customers with current accounts receivable of just over $2 billion, but it has the financial strength to extend even more.

When it comes to safety in agriculture stocks, Monsanto is one of the safest bet. Monsanto’s seeds will always be in demand. Demand for fertilizer will fluctuate somewhat with the prices of their crops farmers expect to get. The purchase of new tractors, harvesters, and other equipment can be put off. But seeds are an absolute must each year.

That level of safety shows in Monsanto’s recent share price performance. Its shares are only down 47% (wow, who ever though “only” would precede “down 47%”) from their highs this year.

But if you’re going to invest in agriculture now, you’ve got to remember a few things. This is not 2006. We are not in for 10% to 15% returns each month in ag stocks. That time has passed. The agriculture story has played out and now it will have to be driven by fundamental demand growth.

Most of the fall in agriculture commodity prices has been built in. And we’ll likely have an even clearer picture of how well the fundamentals are holding up over the next few weeks. Bunge (NYSE:BG), one of the most diversified agriculture companies, reports earnings October 23rd. Then in November Deere (NYSE:DE) and Agrium (NYSE:AGU) report earnings.

Also, agriculture stocks are still relatively high compared to their previous lows set a few years ago when no one cared about agriculture. Since the start of 2004, Potash Corp, Agrium, Mosaic, and Monsanto are up 540%, 160%, 170%, and 440% respectively.

So, it will take a long time for these stocks to return to their euphoric highs set earlier this year. It’s probably best to use a more conservative investing strategy. One that will allow you to start buying today, have you positioned to enjoy the inevitable and likely sharp rallies, and still benefit from any further sell-offs. Although with markets as volatile as they are, there could be more downside to come.

Good investing,

 

Andrew Mickey
Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing

 

Andrew Mickey Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing

The market continues to slide. It seems like the whole world is running to safety.

Three month T-bills yield 0.18%. Retail mutual fund holders are pulling out money at a record pace. Mutual funds experienced a net outflow of $23 billion in July and $6 billion in August. Investor continued to cash up in September as well. Total equity mutual fund outflows excluding ETF’s totaled $75 billion for the last three months according to AMG Data Services.

Other indicators are proving bearish sentiment is at or near an all-time high. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged to an all-time high of 76.94 on Friday. That’s well past the 46 mark which marked the bottom in 2002. That’s well past its previous all-time high of 56 when the Russian government defaulted on its debt in 1998.

On top of that, almost every closed-end fund is selling at a very steep discount to NAV. ETFConnenct.com tracks 654 closed-end funds. Of those, 636 of them are selling at a discount. Only 18 are fetching a premium. The discounts run deep too. Some high income funds that are loaded with junk bonds and real estate funds are trading at discounts as high as 55%.

It seems like a lot of people are just waiting on the sidelines for a rebound. Not too many people are buying anything. Clearly confidence has been shattered and almost no investor has made it through this market unscathed. Even the all-time greats are licking their wounds. But despite it all, they’re continuing to buy.

Warren Buffett

Warren Buffett has been one of the most notable buyers. After cutting an amazing deal with Goldman Sachs and watching shares of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A) fall about 30% in the last month, he’s making plenty of other moves. Berkshire was perfectly positioned as it entered September with a $40 billion cash.

The bid to take over Constellation Energy Group (NYSE:CEG) still stands. Berkshire has also agreed to put $3 billion into 10% preferred shares of General Electric (NYSE:GE). Also, $6.5 of Berkshire’s dollars were committed as part of the Wrigley (NYSE:WWY) LBO led by Mars.

His latest move is probably the timeliest. In order to capitalize on the Bull Market in Volatility, Berkshire is starting to write put options more aggressively. This week Berkshire disclosed it has written put options on Burlington Northern Sante Fe (NYSE:BNI).

Berkshire sold put options that will force it to purchase 1.95 million BNI shares between $77 and $80 per share. The contracts were sold for a total value of $12.76 million and will just defray the costs of buying more BNI…which they were probably going to buy anyway. Berkshire also sold put options for 1.3 million shares of BNI earlier in the week.

Bruce Berkowitz

Bruce Berkowitz started the Fairholme Fund (FAIRX) in December 1999. The fund has crushed the competition, achieving five-year annualized returns of 16.51%. Fairholme has dropped 31% since the start of the year.

Berkowitz is still buying though. While the markets started the first stages of the initial decline, Berkowitz was spotting some values he found appealing. The Fairholme Fund has opened sizable positions in Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), United Healthcare (NYSE:UNH), and generic drug maker Forest Labs (NYSE:FRX).

Ken Heebner

Ken Heebner manages the CGM Focus Fund (CGMFX). The CGM Focus fund has chalked up astounding historical average returns of 25% a year. But in May Heebner received a veritable kiss of death from Fortune magazine. Fortune declared Heebner America’s Hottest Investor. But this market has cooled a lot of hot investors. Heebner has been one of them. The CGM Focus Fund is off 43% for the year.

Despite the fall-off, Heebner’s still looking for values. On Wednesday Heebner appeared on CNBC to provide his thoughts on the market sell-off.

Always one to keep his cards close to his chest, Heebner wasn’t about to reveal all his ideas. He did, however, mention he was spotting a lot of great values and specifically mentioned battered fertilizer producer  Mosaic (NYSE:MOS) is trading for 3 times forward earnings. Heebner also told the New York Times that Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) is a tremendous value.

Martin Whitman

Martin Whitman manages the Third Avenue Value Fund (TAVFX). From inception in November 1990 through October 2007, his fund has returned an annualized average of 16.83%. Whitman is a true “buy and hold” value investor. The Third Avenue Value Fund has also caught up in the downward spiral with a decline of 46% for the year.

In a recent interview, Whitman stated, “This is the opportunity of a lifetime. The most important securities are being given away.”

“Absolutely given away” – that’s a powerful statement from someone who has been in the markets for 50 years.

As late as July, Whitman was buying Sycamore Networks (NASDAQ:SCMR), a technology company focused on bandwidth management. He also opened up a new position in Tokio Marine (TKOMY). Tokio Marine is a Japanese insurance company that has operations in all parts of the world. It recently announced it will be buying out $4.4 billion for Philadelphia Consolidated Holding (NASDAQ:PHLY). While an insurer like AIG blows up, it looks like Tokio Marine will be one of the survivors in the insurance industry.

Bill Miller

Bill Miller made his mark by beating the S&P 500 index for 15 consecutive years. His Legg Mason Value Trust (LMVTX) has attracted billions of dollars of capital every market beating year. This year, however, hit Miller very hard.

When the markets went haywire, Miller’s strategy that worked so well for so long just didn’t work anymore. The Value Trust is off 53% for this year. Publicly-documented investments in Countrywide Financial, MBIA (NYSE:NYSE) and Fannie Mae (NYSE:FNM) have cost the Value Fund a lot of percentage points.

Battered and bruised, Miller’s still looking for values. His valuation principles worked for 15 years and only didn’t work when everyone else’s quit working too. Miller has recently legged into Crocs (NASDAQ:CROX) after its dot-com-like run-up and meltdown.

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It’s certainly advisable to follow Buffett’s advice and “be greedy when others are fearful.” But you’ve got to get greedy at the right time.

These gurus are long-term investors. They’re patient. Most importantly, after years of consistent success, they’ve all built sizable fortunes. They have the wealth to stick to their guns and ride out any further downswings.

Although I recommend keeping an eye on these guys, it’s best for most individual investors to take a much more conservative investing strategy. One that will allow you to start buying today, have you positioned to enjoy the inevitable and likely sharp rallies, and benefit from the further sell-offs.

Good investing,

 

Andrew Mickey
Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing

 

Andrew Mickey Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing

“We’ve hit bottom!”
Pundits around the world have signaled “All Clear” and it’s time to go all in, right?
Wrong.
We’ve been avoiding calling a bottom here at Q1 Publishing for months now. However, that could be about to change. Four of our five bottom indicators are turning bullish and we’re just waiting for one more.
Signs of a Market Bottom: The VIX sets new highs
The CBOE Volatility Index (“the VIX”) continues to set record highs. The VIX is a measure of the premium value placed on S&P 500 option contracts. It’s basically the cost of portfolio insurance. When fear is high, so are insurance costs.
The VIX set an all-time high of 89.53 on Friday. Previous market bottoms were set when the VIX went into the 40’s in 2003 and when it surged into the 50’s in 1998.
The VIX, at this level, is somewhat of a bullish sign. On its own, the VIX doesn’t mark the bottom of anything, but it is a good indicator to see that fear is reaching some extremes.
Signs of a Market Bottom: Weak Hands Walk Away
One of the surest signs of a market bottom is when the herd sells. The herd is the weak hands that chase hot stocks, pile in late, and always seems to hold on too long.
Trim Tabs Investment Research, which tracks the amount of money investors put into and pull out of mutual funds, reported last week an additional $6.47 billion was pulled out of mutual funds. According to Trim Tabs, “Outflows from equity mutual funds remain well on their way to setting all-time highs for October. August, September and October of 2008 are the three worst months on record for mutual fund outflows.”
The amount of fear is getting downright ridiculous. A recent report from Canada’s Globe and Mail states investors are even afraid to speculate with fake money:
Many business schools offer hands-on investing experience. It's a wild time to be getting feet wet in the stock market. "It's taught me that the markets aren't efficient after all," said Davies Town, 18, who runs the stock competition at UBC's Finance Club. He's had a difficult time persuading people to enter his contest: few want to touch markets now, even with virtual money.
The herd is moving away from stocks as fast as possible. The herd has an alarming tendency to buy and sell at the worst possible times; this is a very good sign.
Signs of a Market Bottom: Closed-End Fund Indicator
One of the least watched bottom indicators is actually one of the most important. It’s what I call the Closed-End Fund Indicator.
A closed-end fund trades like a stock and usually holds a group of securities that are tough for individual investors to buy. For instance, some closed-end funds hold distressed debt, municipal debt, or China’s “A” shares which only Chinese citizens are able to buy. They will also trade at a premium or discount to net asset value (NAV).
Two weeks ago, when the markets seemed like they just couldn’t get any worse, only 18 of the 597 closed-end funds were fetching a premium. That was the lowest number I have ever seen. The bearish sentiment in closed-end funds was peaking.
Now, 57 of the funds are trading at a premium. By historical standards, anywhere from 35% to 50% of them should be trading at a premium during a flat market. With only 9.5% of them trading at a premium to NAV, the markets are clearly overly bearish.
Signs of a Market Bottom: Perma-Bears Turn Bullish
There’s a small portion of investors who are always pessimistic. They are brilliant at finding reasons not to buy. They predict the end of bubbles long before they even start to form. They never get caught in bursting bubbles. But they also never enjoy the ride up. They’re called Perma-Bears.
Regardless of any good news, they always seem to be bearish. They rarely buy stocks. In many cases they’re the doom and gloomers who have been buying gold for 30 years waiting for their day. In other cases, they are investors that have the patience to wait 5, 10, or 15 years for their chance. 
When leading perma-bears turn bullish, you know you’re nearing a bottom. And that happened a few weeks ago when Jeremy Grantham said, “You are looking at the best prices in 20 years, and you should be making 7% to 8% to 9% real (inflation-adjusted) returns. The last time I was this optimistic was in the summer of 1982.”
Grantham, who manages about $120 billion in assets for Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo, is one of the most prominent perma-bears in the world and has talked about how overvalued stocks are since the mid 90’s. After the latest market rout, Grantham is starting to turn bullish on stocks. That’s a very good sign.
Signs of a Market Bottom: Bad News Isn’t So Bad
This is the one we’ve been patiently waiting on.
The markets have been reacting to everything lately. As expected, the weaker job reports, news providing proof of a recession around the world, and almost every earnings report warning of weaker times ahead have steadily driven the markets lower.
Right now all that seems to matter each day is the economy. The Fed doesn’t matter, the bailouts are of little consequence, and talk of new stimulus packages (a.k.a. – checks for all) from Washington can’t get the markets turned around. That is all the market cares about right now and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.
But here’s the key to spotting a bottom. When bad news comes out and the markets don’t go down, you can bet we’ve hit bottom. When news, isn’t as bad as expected, that means the market already priced too much bad news into a stock.
We haven’t seen much of this yet. But we will and then it’ll be safe to say we’ve hit bottom.
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Four out of five isn’t bad, but it’s not great either. Plowing all your money into the markets now hoping to catch a bottom isn’t a prudent thing to do. After all, as most investors have learned, stocks go down a lot faster than they go up.
As we’ve said all along, there are three things you should be doing with your money right now.
First, have enough cash on hand to live for the next year or two.
Second, buy safe stocks cautiously. The high dividend stocks that will be able to survive a prolonged recession should hold up well.
Finally, this may be the buying opportunity of a life time. Don’t forget there is the possibility for the buying opportunity in five life times to come along soon.
This is the time when prudent investors lay the seeds for true wealth. Experienced investors know a turnaround will come and are saving up for it. Grantham has been preparing for this moment for more than a decade and we should take advantage of it right along with him by using a conservative investment strategy and picking our spots of when to buy.
Good investing,

Andrew Mickey
Chief Investment Strategist, Q1 Publishing