Archive
Feb 17, 2009
Searching for a Silver Lining
By Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing
When people are frightened, they cut their time horizon dramatically, ... Even advisors will say to sell because they see portfolios crumble and they fear people will have nothing left. It's really not rational, but it does happen.
That’s what David Dreman wrote in his book Contrarian Investment Strategies. Now, almost 30 years later, it’s looking like it’s happening all over again.
People are getting frightened they’ll have nothing left.
Portfolios are crumbling.
And the market’s main focus is on what the latest government plan will look like when it’s revealed later this week (talk about dramatically shortened time horizons).
But hey, this was expected. We knew the stimulus plan wasn’t worth much. And frankly, hopes to a government orchestrated solution having any impact in a few months time were just irrational. But this is just what we’ve been waiting for...
When people are frightened, they cut their time horizon dramatically, ... Even advisors will say to sell because they see portfolios crumble and they fear people will have nothing left. It's really not rational, but it does happen.
That’s what David Dreman wrote in his book Contrarian Investment Strategies. Now, almost 30 years later, it’s looking like it’s happening all over again.
People are getting frightened they’ll have nothing left.
Portfolios are crumbling.
And the market’s main focus is on what the latest government plan will look like when it’s revealed later this week (talk about dramatically shortened time horizons).
But hey, this was expected. We knew the stimulus plan wasn’t worth much. And frankly, hopes to a government orchestrated solution having any impact in a few months time were just irrational. But this is just what we’ve been waiting for...
Feb 14, 2009
A Frank Discussion About What Could Destroy Your Wealth
Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing
-Andrew, is oil going up or down now? Should I sell my oil ETF?
-I don’t know. How much were you looking to make and what’s your time frame?
-I was looking for a 10% pop over the next few days and I’m down 18% now. Wait let me pull up a…now I’m down 19%.
-So…you were willing to risk 19% or more to make 10%?
-Uhhh….I guess so.
-Yes, you should sell now. Sell everything. And with rationale like that, NEVER trade again.
-That’s a real conversation I had with a friend a few weeks back...
-Andrew, is oil going up or down now? Should I sell my oil ETF?
-I don’t know. How much were you looking to make and what’s your time frame?
-I was looking for a 10% pop over the next few days and I’m down 18% now. Wait let me pull up a…now I’m down 19%.
-So…you were willing to risk 19% or more to make 10%?
-Uhhh….I guess so.
-Yes, you should sell now. Sell everything. And with rationale like that, NEVER trade again.
-That’s a real conversation I had with a friend a few weeks back...
Feb 12, 2009
The Final Hurdle for Gold May Have Been Passed
Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing
Bloomberg declares, -Gold Soars to Highest Since July.
A Wall Street Journal headline proclaims, -Gold is Flirting with $1,000, Again; ‘There’s No Sign of the Market Tiring.
Yesterday gold surged another $30 an ounce surpassing $930. And the mainstream media is getting on board in a big way.
Now, we can debate all day whether this is the time gold runs back to $1,000 and beyond. Or whether this is just another short-lived bounce which could run out of steam at any moment. Frankly, the exceptional volatility of the gold market has taught me only time will tell.
What I can tell you is that there has recently been a change in gold – at least the perception of gold. A dramatic change. One that could set gold and gold stocks on a long march higher. Yet, the mainstream media have completely glossed over it. Let me explain...
Bloomberg declares, -Gold Soars to Highest Since July.
A Wall Street Journal headline proclaims, -Gold is Flirting with $1,000, Again; ‘There’s No Sign of the Market Tiring.
Yesterday gold surged another $30 an ounce surpassing $930. And the mainstream media is getting on board in a big way.
Now, we can debate all day whether this is the time gold runs back to $1,000 and beyond. Or whether this is just another short-lived bounce which could run out of steam at any moment. Frankly, the exceptional volatility of the gold market has taught me only time will tell.
What I can tell you is that there has recently been a change in gold – at least the perception of gold. A dramatic change. One that could set gold and gold stocks on a long march higher. Yet, the mainstream media have completely glossed over it. Let me explain...
Feb 10, 2009
Great Problems and Great Fortunes
Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing
Peak oil, my a**. I’ve got hundreds of millions of barrels of the stuff in the Gulf [of Mexico]. We know where the oil is…we just can’t get to it. I can’t even get a contractor that can do the work to take my call.
That’s what an oil company executive told me (with a Texas drawl and an arm around my shoulder for balance) a little over three years ago.
At the time oil was $60. There was no telling how high it could go. The aged scotch was flowing in celebration of good times - and even better times to come.
The conference was in New York City, but a few hundred oilmen from across the country came to celebrate, swap stories, and complain. About 9 out of 10 people in the room were wearing a three-piece suit and cowboy boot combination. Your editor was just another face in the crowd. But I was a face with a lot of questions and looking for a lot of answers...
Peak oil, my a**. I’ve got hundreds of millions of barrels of the stuff in the Gulf [of Mexico]. We know where the oil is…we just can’t get to it. I can’t even get a contractor that can do the work to take my call.
That’s what an oil company executive told me (with a Texas drawl and an arm around my shoulder for balance) a little over three years ago.
At the time oil was $60. There was no telling how high it could go. The aged scotch was flowing in celebration of good times - and even better times to come.
The conference was in New York City, but a few hundred oilmen from across the country came to celebrate, swap stories, and complain. About 9 out of 10 people in the room were wearing a three-piece suit and cowboy boot combination. Your editor was just another face in the crowd. But I was a face with a lot of questions and looking for a lot of answers...
Feb 07, 2009
Age of Innovation, Depression, and Opportunity
Andrew Mickey, Q1 Publishing
It’s tough to imagine economic sentiment getting any worse.
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, said, We should agree as a world on a monetary and fiscal stimulus that will take the world out of r... depression.
GE’s CEO alluded to a potential depression when he said, Once you break through '74-'75, you don't stop 'til you get to 1929.
Bill Gross, the Bond King, said, The U.S. may slump into a ‘mini depression’ unless policy makers spend trillions of dollars to spur growth. I guess a recession isn’t even much of a hope anymore. Come to think of it, I haven’t heard -soft landing- in months...
It’s tough to imagine economic sentiment getting any worse.
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, said, We should agree as a world on a monetary and fiscal stimulus that will take the world out of r... depression.
GE’s CEO alluded to a potential depression when he said, Once you break through '74-'75, you don't stop 'til you get to 1929.
Bill Gross, the Bond King, said, The U.S. may slump into a ‘mini depression’ unless policy makers spend trillions of dollars to spur growth. I guess a recession isn’t even much of a hope anymore. Come to think of it, I haven’t heard -soft landing- in months...
