Archive
Mar 03, 2011
The Real Impact of $100 Oil
$100 oil is dominating the financial headlines.
Some analysts have warned $100 will stop the recovery in its tracks.
Others put the magic number between $120 and $130 per barrel.
There’s no way to know for sure. But if we go beyond the headlines and designed-to-predict-the-last-crisis macroeconomic models, we can quickly see the real impact of $100 oil.
Feb 15, 2011
Earning Reveal Troubling Trend for 2011
One of the big themes of 2011 is starting to be felt.
This earnings season has revealed margins are getting squeezed across a number of industries.
Rising food, oil, and metals prices are cutting into bottom line earnings. Some high-profile industry leaders are missing Wall Street’s low-balled expectations. And the costly trend, which could be the catalyst for the next correction, is only going to get worse.
But investors willing to realize it and make the right moves now are going to see it as an opportunity for a number of reasons.
Feb 08, 2011
One Unblemished Indicator’s Surprising Results
Stock market forecasters have latched onto a lot of “indicators” over the years, but most are completely worthless.
For example, timely “Super Bowl Indicator” has many in the financial community as excited as Packers fans.
The Super Bowl Indicator states stocks go up when one of the original NFL teams (the teams before the merger with AFL) win the championship. This indicator has been “right” 35 out of the first 44 years. The Packers are one of those original NFL teams.
Another popular indicator, the “January Barometer,” states stocks continue to rise for the rest of the years after posting gains in the month of January. For 50 years stocks increased an average of 7.7% following a good January. The S&P 500 was up last month.
However, these “indicators” are complete nonsense. The Super Bowl Indicator is nothing more than pure coincidence. And the January Barometer is based on a random market move over an arbitrary – and short - time period.
As an example of how arbitrary these indicators are, another indicator says stocks are going down this year. A few minutes of fun-with-spreadsheets has found that the S&P 500 increases 1.9% in years in which your editor’s age is a prime number. On the other hand, the S&P 500 has increased by an average of 11% per year when my age is a composite number.
These indicators are tragically flawed and baseless. But there’s one that is not. And now that the market has posted an eight week winning streak and, as a result, is positioned for a sharper and more fear-inducing correction, it’s critical to be aware of its remarkably accurate signal.
Feb 04, 2011
The Real Car of the Future Sparks New Boom: Stop-Start Evolution Revealed
A new boom has been born.
It has everything we look for in an emerging trend.
Its benefits significantly outweigh its costs to users.
It’s already proven. It works and the technology has already established a beachhead in some rapidly recovering market.
It’s not controlled by a start-up which has to have a lot of stars align to work out. The big industry leaders have already deemed it the future.
It will only benefit from the big megatrends including high and rising energy prices, dollar devaluation, and stagnating consumer spending.
It’s poised to grow 47% per year over the next five years regardless of the overall economy.
Finally, its growth has been practically mandated by governments around the world.
Sounds like it has it all right? Well, it does. And the time to jump on board is now.
Jan 31, 2011
Even Egypt and $100 Oil Can’t Stop this Bubble from Bursting
The about-to-be-toppled Egyptian regime has sparked fears of upheaval sweeping through the remaining U.S. friendly regimes in the world’s oil heartland.
Nowhere is the growing uncertainty more apparent than in the oil markets. Today, oil prices continue to their fear-driven surge. A barrel of Brent crude passed $100 for the first time over two years.
Oil and energy stocks mostly followed suit and led the major indices to another day of gains.
The surge in oil prices didn’t bring all energy-related stocks along with it though. The divergence shows how truly weak one of the hottest sectors in the world has grown over the last few weeks and confirms this micro-bubble is likely about to burst.
Best of all, as this bubble burst though, a real opportunity is filling its void that almost no one is even talking about yet.



